Cooler Heads Prevail Amid Rising Tension Between India and Pakistan

War between two nuclear capable nations is what apocalyptic movies are made up off. However, this time, the threat of nuclear war looms not from the usual suspects between the US and Russia or from China for that matter, but between two warring countries fighting over their border.  The fight is between India and Pakistan.

The two nation have already clashed four times since the British relinquished its control over India in 1947. Three of the skirmishes were in Kashmir, over the Himalayan region. New Delhi and Islamabad are both claiming the entirety of the region. This resulted in a massive military buildup, which makes Kashmir one of the most militarized in South Asia. The two nation is divided by a de facto border known as the Line of Control (LoC). Since both countries have nuclear capabilities, a potential apocalyptic collision is a possible horrifying scenario.

World attention has been focused on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi since the attack on the Indian military outpost on Sept 18. Four gunmen were able to cross the LoC and killed eighteen soldiers in the Kashmir town of Uri. The attack is the worst of its kind in more than two decades. Pakistan rejects India’s presumption that the gunmen came across the LoC from the Pakistan side of the border.

Clamor for a strong response is growing among the people, as well as with close allies of the Prime Minister. Ram Madhav of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have upped the ante with a war-like rhetoric. He said that the days of Indian restraint is over. “For one tooth, the complete jaw. If terrorism is the instrument of the weak and coward (sic), restraint in the face of repeated terror attacks betrays inefficiency and incompetence. India should prove otherwise.”

Indian Media has also demanded that the country to show that it will not take the murder of 18 soldiers sitting down. The uncertainty is growing on what will be the next move by the Indian government following the Uri attack.

Last weekend, Prime Minister Modi gave a speech that had the world breathe a sigh of relief, at least for the time being. Modi is stepping up efforts to pressure Pakistan diplomatically rather than the use of military force. At a BJP meeting in southern India, Modi said. “I want to tell the people of Pakistan, India is ready to fight you,” he added. “If you have the strength, come forward to fight against poverty. Let’s see who wins. Let’s see who is able to defeat poverty and illiteracy first, Pakistan or India.”

Experts believe that Modi’s approach is a result of India recognizing the downside of a military confrontation. India’s growing economy which has one of the fastest growth in the world, would have adverse effect and would definitely pull down their sustained growth. Happymon Jacob, an expert from Delhi’s Jawaharla Nehru University stated. “Having gone through some discussion, the government of India has come to the conclusion that you can only escalate this diplomatically and politically, which is exactly what they are doing.”

Ashok Malik, a senior member at the Observer Research Foundation think tank sees India’s situation as volatile. The Prime Minister domestically faces pressure “to be seen to be doing something in response to this attack.”

On the global scale however, India needs to build “an even stronger case against Pakistan and emphasize that [terrorism linked to] Pakistan is a challenge not just for India but also the rest of the world.”

Adding Diplomatic Pressure

India also withdrew from the upcoming summit for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. The regional meeting will be in Islamabad. This is to add to the diplomatic pressure India is currently undertaking on Pakistan.

Although the world can sleep better with Prime Minister Modi’s approach, the possibility of a military confrontation will always be an available option.  Malik said. “I don’t think Modi has given up on the military option for the remainder of his term [in office, which expires in 2019].”

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