Mosul; ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi “Confident in Victory”

As Iraqi Counter Terrorist forces entered Mosul, Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi delivered a message to boost the morale of the ISIS fighters. He also expressed his confidence in victory.

Furthermore, the jihadist leader urged his fighters to attack the neighboring country, Turkey.

“This raging battle and total war, and the great jihad that the state of Islam is fighting today only increases our firm belief, God willing, and our conviction that all this is a prelude to victory,” Baghdadi said in an audio recording.

Baghdadi also called on the people of Mosul to fight the “enemies of God”. He added that they should not “weaken in the jihad.”

He addressed the ISIS suicide fighters to “turn the nights of the unbelievers into days, to wreak havoc in their land and make their blood flow as rivers.”

The city of Mosul, home to 1.5 million people was captured by the Islamic State two years ago. They then declared it as an ISIS ‘caliphate.’

Baghdadi also instructed his fighters to “unleash the fire of their anger” on Turkish forces fighting them in Syria.

Turkey today entered your range of action and the aim of your jihad … invade it and turn its safety into fear,” he added.

Iraqi counter-terrorism forces together with Kurdish troops and some Shi’ite militias have been attacking ISIS forces for months.

Baghdadi instructed his forces to launch “attack after attack” in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, he urged them to target security forces, government officials, media news offices, and members of the Al Saud family.

Baghdadi said Saudi Arabia has sided with “infidel nations in the war on Islam and the Sunna (Sunni Muslims) in Iraq and Syria.”

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said the caliphate was not affected by the death of its 2 senior commanders named Abu Muhammad al-Adnani and Abu Muhammad al-Furqan. Both commanders were killed this year in a U.S. airstrike.

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U.S. Forces Ready to Retake ISIS ‘Capital’ City of Raqqa

United States Defense Secretary Ash Carter released a statement on Wednesday that it would launch an all-out offensive to retake the city of Raqqa.

At a NATO meeting in Brussels, Carter told reporters that troops are now being mobilized for the siege of Raqqa that would take place in the next couple of weeks; he declined to give more specifics about the attack.

“The plan has us generating those forces in a matter of weeks … generating them and positioning them for the isolation of Raqqa,” Carter said.

Earlier this month, the U.S. backed the attack on Mosul. It has been “long planned” that the attack on Raqqa would be next, Carter added.

Ready to Attack

The assault preparation comes amid fears that the terror group would plot an attack somewhere in the world from inside of the city.

U.S. Commander in Iraq, Gen. Stephen Townsend, told reporters that it is “imperative to get isolation in place around Raqqa,” he added, “there are significant external operations attack planning” taking place inside the city.

“We actually aren’t sure how pressing it is, and that’s what’s worrying,” Gen. Townsend added, “We know they are up to something, and it’s an external plot. We don’t know exactly where; we don’t know exactly when.”

Secretary Ash Carter said the military has enough resources to launch the operation in both Mosul and Raqqa.

“We’re going to win this, and so if there’s anything we need to do to accelerate, I’m prepared to ask for it,” he said.

Secretary Carter and his NATO counterparts shared the same insight and committed that anti-ISIS operations would be its major focus.

The transatlantic alliance committed to increasing its participation and launch aerial surveillance flights in the Black Sea Region.

NATO has been training Iraqi military officers in Jordan as it avoids direct involvement in the anti-ISIS fight, leaving the decision to its members to be involved in the U.S. led coalition.

NATO’s commitment for Peace

NATO spokesperson Dylan White said on Tuesday, “We will improve the coalition’s overall air picture by providing surveillance and situational awareness, thereby making the skies safer,”

“This is a meaningful contribution to the (anti-ISIS) effort and a clear signal of NATO’s determination to help fight terrorism,” he added.

NATO showed its determination despite the recent criticism made by Presidential nominee Donald Trump.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “NATO has played a key role, has been in a front line in a fight against terrorism for many, many years with our operation in Afghanistan, training Iraqi officers supporting Tunisia, Jordan and many other ways.”
“As I stated many times, the adaptation of NATO — where you focus more on intelligence, where you step up of our efforts to fight terrorism, where we increase defense spending — is not related to (the) US election campaign,” he added.

Other than anti-ISIS operations in Syria and Iraq, NATO also focuses on Russia’s recent aggression in Eastern Europe.

Secretary Carter said that the U.S. will deploy rotations of U.S.-based armored brigade combat teams to Europe early next year to strengthen deterrence in the region

 

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Iraq Refuses to Join OPEC Cut, Weights on Oil Prices

Oil prices tumble early on Monday as Iraq declines to cut production and US drillers escalate work. Iraq said it does not want to be involved in any deal by producer cartel OPEC to decrease oil production to prop up the market.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 0.4 percent, or 19 cents, from their last close as they traded at $51.59 a barrel at 1033 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $50.63 per barrel, down 22 cents, or 0.4 percent.

The price falls after comments from Iraq saying it wanted to be let off from a production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), traders said. The oil cartel plans to decide on the production cut at its meeting on November 30.

OPEC plans to bring down production from 33.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September to a range of 32.50 million to 33.0 million bpd.

If Iraq didn’t participate, it would be harder to accomplish since it is OPEC’s second-largest producer next to Saudi Arabia.

Iraq said on Sunday that its oil production stood at 4.774 million bpd, with exports standing at 3.87 million bpd.

“We are not going back in any way, not by OPEC not by anybody else,” Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Company head Falah al-Amri said.

ANZ bank said on Monday that remarks by Iraq over the weekend that it may not fall in with the OPEC deal to bring down production could see oil prices come under pressure in today’s session.

Further, US oil rigs increased by 11 last week, the first double-digit rise since August, which added more pressure to the market.

Morgan Stanley said that rig counts would continue to rise in the wake of the recent price rally.

Also weighing on oil is the ongoing strength of the dollar, crimping demand while it makes fuel purchases more costly for nations using other currencies at home.

Meanwhile, official data showed on Monday that, on the demand side, Japan’s crude imports dropped to 3.37 million, or 4.6 percent, in September from the same month a year earlier.

Analysts said that oil markets, despite of Monday’s lower prices, might be rebalancing in terms of consumption and production after being pulled down by two years of oversupply.

Barclays bank said in a note to clients on Sunday that statistical balances indicate that circumstances have improved markedly. They believe that the market is moving more swiftly into balance than is generally acknowledged.

“The market moved into a small deficit in Q3, will remain so in Q4 and then the deficit will expand significantly in 2017,” it added.

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Longer, Bloodier Fight for Mosul as ISIS Adopt Horrific New Tactics

Dozens of people arrived in a mosque to offer condolences to the family of Brigadier Hamid Birmous.

Brigadier Hamid Birmous was recently killed in action during the Iraqi Securty Forces attempt to retake the city of Mosul.

“I would need days to talk about his life. He was a hero,” said by Iraqi Sergeant Hermen Idress, the dead brigadier’s nephew.

Idriss has been fighting ISIS for a long time and said the bomb that killed his uncle was a kind he hadn’t seen before.

The Iraqi security forces supported by different branches including advisors from the U.S. led coalition have been preparing months for this offensive.

Iraqi Prime Minister and U.S. officials said that operations are on track. However earlier this week, some Iraqi officials told National Public Radio (NPR) that operations would take weeks. But after the recent chaotic battle, Idriss disagrees.

“They are fighting a tough fight, and that means it will take longer,” he added.

In recent weeks, ISIS has been delaying the advancing Iraqi forces, by sending dozens of trucks, car bombs and suicide bombers, planting network of mines, setting mortars and snipers.

Over the past years, Iraqi security forces have known where ISIS Fighters are located and also have intelligence about what they have been planning.

Nevertheless, Iraqi commander Jamal al Amenki says they weren’t expecting attacks on this magnitude.

“We knew all their tactics. We knew that when we started to attack them, they would also fight us — and we knew where they were.”

Mosul honeycombed by booby traps and tunnels

He believes that during the past two years, the front line had barely moved which gave ISIS extremist plenty of time to build tunnels, bombs, and booby traps, laying them at night.

ISIS does not directly engage the advancing forces. Their strategy is to delay the attackers then slowly exterminate them using traps and suicide bombers.

No one knows the exact number of casualties, but soldiers speaking unofficially and anonymously says dozens have died this week.

Mosul, home to over 2.5 million people is also the birth-place of the ISIS caliphate. Hence, it is the most important city for the extremist group.

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Iraq City of Kirkuk, Power Plant Stormed by IS Fighters

Islamic State fighters equipped with assault rifles and explosives attacked targets in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk early on Friday. The attack is possibly aimed at redirecting authorities’ attention for the battle to recapture IS-held Mosul.

More than 11 workers, two of them Iranians, were killed when IS militants captured a power plant north of Kirkuk and then blew themselves up.

Witnesses said in Kirkuk that several explosions rocked the city and gun battles were ongoing. The witnesses spoke on condition of anonymity as they were concerned for their safety. Most of the fighting was focused on a government complex in the city.

IS said its fighters were behind the assault, which the extremist group said was aimed at the Iraqi government. The statement was conveyed by the IS-run Aamaq news agency and could not immediately be confirmed.

Local Kurdish television channel Rudaw aired footage showing black smoke climbing over the city while prolonged bursts of automatic gunfire rang out. It cited Kirkuk Gov. Najmadin Karim as stating that the militants have not taken control of any government buildings.

Meanwhile, three IS suicide bombers stormed a power plant in Dibis, a town north of Kirkuk, and took 10 workers hostage, said Maj. Ahmed Kader Ali.

The assailants demanded to be taken to the Iranians who work at the plant. One of the workers brought them to the Iranians before fleeing. The militants then executed the Iranians and the other workers, and set off their explosive vests when police arrived.

Kirkuk is about 170 kilometers (100 miles) from the IS-held city of Mosul, where Iraqi troops have been engaged in a large-scale offensive since Monday.

The city is around 290 kilometers (180 miles) north of Baghdad and southeast of Mosul. It is claimed by both Kurdish region and Iraq’s central government. It has long been a hotspot for conflict and has been the setting of several attacks by Islamic State militants.

Rudaw TV said later Friday that all IS fighters who participated in the attack on Kirkuk had been killed save for two who were secluded in a newly built hotel which was damaged in the attack.

There was no immediate word on fatalities among civilians or Kurdish troops in Kirkuk. Also, the TV report could not immediately be impartially verified.

A town where a Kurdish peshmerga base is located outside the city also came under fire early on Friday. Kemal Kerkuki, a senior commander of Kurdish peshmerga forces west of Kirkuk, said the base is now under control.

IS retains sleeper cells in Kirkuk and the surrounding villages, Kerkuki said. He added that a group of IS fighters attempted to attack a power station in Dibis village west of Kirkuk with light weapons and a suicide bomber.

IS also claimed an assault on the power station. It said that its fighters had attacked the facility and killed all security forces posted there.

Wolves in sheep’s clothing

Kerkuki said he believes the attackers gained access to Kirkuk masquerading as evacuated civilians. The city has taken in several thousands of displaced people from nearby provinces. This started when IS initially invaded broad stretches of northern and western Iraq in the summer of 2014.

“Many of (the displaced civilians), I’m sure they are working with ISIS,” Kerkuki said. “We arrested one recently and he confessed (he was part of a sleeper cell).”

Iraqi and Kurdish forces supported by U.S.-led coalition began a multi-pronged offensive this week to take back Mosul and neighboring areas from IS. The operation is the most extensive undertaken by the Iraqi military since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Iraqi officials said they had progressed as far as the town of Bartella, 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Mosul’s borders, by Thursday.

 

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US Anticipates Use of Chemical Weapons by Islamic State in Mosul Conflict

As the Islamic State tries to fend off an Iraqi-led assault on the city of Mosul, the United States anticipates Islamic State to utilize crude chemical weapons, US officials say. Though they added that the group’s technical ability to create such weapons is extremely limited.

One official said that the US is wary of the militant group given their use of a mustard agent in the months preceding Monday’s commencement of the Mosul offensive. Consequently, US forces have started to consistently collect shell fragments to test for potential chemical agents.

A second official said that in a formerly undisclosed incident, US forces verified the existence of sulfur mustard agent on Islamic State munition fragments on October 5.

The attack was aimed at local forces, not coalition or US troops.

US officials believe that conventional weapons are still the most serious risk for attacking Kurdish and Iraqi troops. They don’t think Islamic State has been effective so far at developing chemical weapons with specifically fatal results.

Sulfur mustard agent causes exposed skin and lungs to swell up. However, that would not be fatal at low doses.

Close to 5,000 US forces are in Iraq. At least 100 of them are inserted with Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces involved with the Mosul offensive. They are assigned in an advisory role counseling commanders. The advisers also help ensure coalition air-power hits the appropriate targets, officials said. They added that those forces are not at the frontlines.

The collapse of Mosul would signify the fall of the ultra-hardline Sunni jihadists in Iraq. On the other hand, this could also lead to sectarian bloodletting and land grabs between factions that fought each other following the downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

One million potential humans shields for IS

US President Barack Obama appraised on Thursday that around 1 million civilians were still in Mosul. This creates a challenge for Iraq and its Western allies attempting to drive out the group through force.

Thomas Weiss, the Iraq chief of the International Organization for Migration, said on Tuesday he expected Islamic State forces to use Mosul residents as human shields. He also voiced out his concerns about the risks of chemical agents.

Weiss added that the IOM had not managed to secure many gas masks yet.

The allied assault could lead to a complicated, prolonged battle, as attacking Iraqi forces remain 12 to 30 miles from the city itself. US officials believe that ISIL is most likely to use chemical weapons later in the campaign.

The leader of Islamic State was reported to be among thousands of fanatical militants still in the city. This suggests the group would go all out to hold off the coalition.

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Iraq PM warns Turkey of Regional Conflict if Turkish Troops Stay in Iraq Territory

Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi gave a stern warning to Turkey that they risk triggering a regional conflict by allowing Turkish troops to remain in northern Iraq. At the same time, neighboring states had summoned each other’s ambassadors as tensions between both countries mount.

Turkey’s parliament with a vote last week has decided to extend continue the fight against terrorist organization in Iraq. Probable targets for Turkish military operations include the Kurdish militants and the Islamic State.

Iraq’s parliament on the other hand, responded by condemning the vote by the Turkish parliamentary vote. Iraq called for an immediate recall of the 2,000 Turkish troops in its territory.

Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Abadi warned their neighbor on state TV on Wednesday. “We have asked the Turkish side more than once not to intervene in Iraqi matters. I fear the Turkish adventure could turn into a regional war,” Al-Abadi said further. “The Turkish leadership’s behavior is not acceptable and we don’t want to get into a military confrontation with Turkey.”

The vote had flared up the already high tension between the two nation. Tensions began with the Syrian war and the spread of Islamic State.

Diplomatic Protests

Turkey announced on Tuesday that they had summoned the Iraqi ambassador to protest about the parliamentary vote. Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed disappointment with the vote and said. “We believe this decision does not reflect the views of the majority of Iraqi people, whom Turkey has stood by for years and attempted to support with all its resources,” and further added. “We find it noteworthy that the Iraqi parliament, which has not said anything about the accepted mandate for years, puts this on the agenda as though it were a new development in times when terror is taking so many lives in Turkey and Iraq.”

Iraq on the other hand, summoned the Turkish ambassador to Baghdad. to complain on what it said were “provocative” statements made in Ankara with regard to allowing the Turkish troops to stay in northern Iraq.

Turkey said that the deployment of their troops last year was part of an international operation. Their mission was to train and equip the Iraqi forces to deal with Islamic State.

Iraq on the other hand said that there was no invitation for the Turkish troops and as such, considers them as occupiers on Iraq’s sovereign soil.

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Singapore Defense Chief Warns of Threats From Extremist Groups

Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said on Friday that violent extremist groups represents a grave threat to Southeast Asia. Moreover, he believed that these groups are growing each year, becoming more organized and focusing on their objectives.

Ng gave his statement during the meeting of Southeast Asian defense ministers in Hawaii. US Defense Secretary Ash Carter was also present in the meeting. Ministers dedicated a lot of time discussing threats from Islamic State and similar groups.

According to Ng, over 1,000 Southeast Asians assembled to join the Islamic State’s self-declared “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria. He also said, “Every year we meet, the situation and threat from extremist terrorism rises. Ng added, “Compared to, say, a year or even two years ago, they’re more organized…they’re more networked, they’re more clear in their articulation of what they want to achieve.”

A statement from security officials in June said Southeast Asian militants claimed to fight for Islamic State. These militants have chosen an individual from within the region to lead the group. The Philippines considers this regional faction head as one of their most wanted terrorists.

Jakarta bombing

Since the bombing last January in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, regional authorities reinforced heightened security. The Islamic State claimed the attack which killed eight people including for attackers.

Ng mentioned of a foiled plan concocted by an Indonesian faction to strike at hotels in Singapore’s Marina Bay area. The Indonesian militants maintained coordination with an Islamic State member in Syria. However, It was averted with the help of Indonesian authorities. Ng said, “They have gone beyond networks to push the flow of funds, weapons. They are already plotting”.

Dreaded homecoming

Hundreds of citizens from Southeast Asia joined the Islamic State in their battles in Iraq and Syria. US Defense officials believed they have returned home, raising concerns to launch a rash of attacks.

The US is currently conducting an air campaign to displace the Islamic State from Iraq and Syria. Ng believed destroying its base would lead to a short term increase of regional attacks. Subsequently, seasoned Islamic State fighters would likely return home.

Ng said, “They would decide to come back, some re-energized, some trained and the networks would still be existing”.

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